Cyber Monday Deal: Up to 60% off InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Oil tumbles as Iran nuclear deal looms

Published 07/13/2015, 03:48 AM
© Reuters. Offshore oil platform is seen in Huntington Beach
BAC
-
CBKG
-
MS
-
LCO
-
CL
-

By Christopher Johnson

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled on Monday as Iran and six world powers closed in on a final nuclear deal that would end sanctions on the Islamic Republic and let more Iranian oil on to world markets.

News of a unanimous agreement by European leaders on a bailout loan for Athens, which should allow Greece to stay in the euro zone, helped pare early losses.

Brent crude for August fell $1.89 to a low of $56.84 a barrel before rallying back to around $57.70 by 0725 GMT.

U.S. light crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was down 90 cents at $51.84 a barrel.

Iran and six world powers are reportedly on the brink of finding a nuclear deal that would bring sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on Tehran's nuclear programme.

The possibility of Iran adding to a global oil surplus when the demand outlook could potentially weaken given a slump in China's equity markets, led several analysts to say crude would fall further.

"An Iran nuclear deal is planned for Monday, which is not yet in our base case forecast," Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said.

"If true and successful, U.S. production growth may

not be needed until 2017, keeping 12-18 months deferred WTI

prices under $70 a barrel. Similarly, under such a scenario, Brent could remain range-bound below $70 through 2016."

Oil prices pared early sharp losses after European Council President Donald Tusk said euro zone leaders had "unanimously reached agreement" on a deal for Greece.

But the oil market remained bearish.

"Implementation risks remain, and a possible nuclear deal with Iran should limit the upside," said Carsten Fritsch, senior oil and commodities analyst at Commerzbank (XETRA:CBKG) in Frankfurt.

Although analysts say it would take until 2016 before Iran would be able to return to full-scale exports, most estimate that a jump of around 200,000 barrels per day in exports could be seen in the short term, adding to a current surplus of about 2.6 million barrels a day.

With oversupply ongoing and abundant economic risk, several banks have lowered their oil price forecasts.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) said U.S. crude prices "could soon drop well below our $50 per barrel target in 3Q15".

© Reuters. Offshore oil platform is seen in Huntington Beach

Commerzbank said a fall below $55 per barrel in Brent and below $50 per barrel in U.S. crude was "conceivable".

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.