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GRAINS-Rally after sell-off; wheat surges 4 pct

Published 05/09/2011, 01:13 PM
Updated 05/10/2011, 05:49 AM
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* U.S. wheat climbs on drought in HRW wheat belt

* Corn, soy gain on slow plantings, higher crude oil

* Coming up: Weekly U.S. crop progress report on Monday (Adds quotes, links to USDA polls, updates prices)

By Michael Hirtzer

CHICAGO, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. grain futures rallied on Monday, rebounding from the sell-off last week, with wheat surging nearly 4 percent, its biggest gain in three weeks on dry weather in the United States and Europe.

Corn futures rose about 1.5 percent as wet weather continued to slow plantings in the eastern grain belt, although farmers were making some progress in the western region.

"People expected a rebound (in commodities) and with oil up a few dollars, people are happy to see that," said Adam Tepper, a grains analyst at the Arlon Group, an investment house in New York.

"I don't know if i'd call it stabilization. We'll see in a day or two," Tepper added. "We have serious problems in the Corn Belt and I think risk is to the upside and I would rather be long than short."

Wheat for July delivery was 29-1/4 cents higher at $7.88-3/4 per bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade.

CBOT July corn climbed 13 cents to $6.99-1/4 per bushel after last week posting its largest weekly decline in eight months

CBOT July soybeans were up 8 cents at $13.34, following gains in corn and crude oil.

"Every Sunday and every Monday, you price in the weather, and there are a lot of bullish weather patterns that are helping the markets this morning," said Tim Hannagan, analyst at PFG Best in Chicago.

"Wheat got brutalized last week," he added.production in the largest producing state of the grain will be the smallest since 1996 as drought has devastated the crop.

Hot weekend temperatures in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas were also likely to further stress the crop as wheat plants enter the crucial heading phase.

Highs on Sunday in Kansas ranged from 93 to 104 degrees Fahrenheit (34 to 40 degrees C), with temperatures even hotter in Texas and Oklahoma.

'INCREDIBLE TEMPERATURES'

"These temperatures are incredible for this time of the year and reflective of the extreme drought in Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas," said Telvent DTN forecaster Mike Palmerino.

Rain and flooding have also brought spring wheat plantings to nearly a standstill in the Dakotas, lifting wheat futures at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.

"The northern Plains are terrible. You have a ton of flooding in the Dakotas and it's a real problem up there," Tepper said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday will release its first winter wheat production estimates of the year and also update U.S. and global grain stocks.

USDA late on Monday will release planting progress reports for corn and soybeans and update conditions for the HRW wheat crop.

Analysts expect USDA to put corn plantings at 31 percent, down from the five-year average of 53 percent, and soybeans at 7 percent planted, versus normal pace of 14 percent.

Corn farmers were able to make some progress as a warm, dry weekend in the western Corn Belt provided a planting window. But rains are forecast for much of this week in South Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois and elsewhere.

Flooding along the lower Mississippi River left standing water in fields in the mid-South and Delta regions and forced closures of locks on the main waterway to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, which tracks a basket of commodities, on Monday gained 1.3 percent or about 4 points to 341.91, rebounding from the worst weekly decline last year since December 2008.

Analysts linked last week's sell-off in commodities to financial investors reversing long commodities and short dollar positions that helped boost corn futures to a record last month.

However, Hannagan warned the selling in grains could resume if oil, gold or silver lose ground.

"Funds that trade a broad-based portfolio -- that's just what they do. They'll trade any hat tossed in the ring," he said. "You're pricing in the weather with these big moves and then that's done." (Additional reporting by Christine Stebbins in Chicago, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Naveen Thukral in Singapore;Reporting by Michael Hirtzer;editing by Sofina Mirza-Reid)

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