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Gold futures - Weekly outlook: July 9 - 13

Published 07/08/2012, 06:18 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures came under heavy selling pressure Friday, as the U.S. dollar surged against its major counterparts following a report showing the U.S. added fewer jobs than expected in May.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery settled at USD1,583.85 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday.

Earlier in the day, prices hit USD1,576.55 a troy ounce, the lowest since June 29. On the week, gold futures declined 0.95%.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,551.35 a troy ounce, the low from June 29 and near-term resistance at USD1,624.05, the high from July 5.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that the U.S. economy added 80,000 jobs in June, below market expectations for a gain of around 90,000.

April figures were revised to 68,000 from 77,000 jobs, while May's numbers were revised to 77,000 from 69,000.

The report also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 8.2% in June, in line with expectations.

Although the employment report was weaker than expected, many investors said it was not bad enough to spur the Federal Reserve to launch a third round of quantitative easing.

The central bank will release the minutes of its most previous policy setting meeting later this week and will hold its next major meeting in late July.

The disappointing data prompted investors to shun riskier assets, such as stocks and commodities, and flock to traditional safe haven assets like the U.S. dollar.

The euro sank to the lowest level since July 2010 against the dollar, while the dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose to 83.47, gaining 2% on the week.

Gold has lost some of its safe haven appeal to the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, partly as a strengthening dollar makes the metal less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor developments in the euro zone, amid sustained fears over the region’s debt crisis.

Spanish 10-year yields settled the week at 6.95%, reversing the decline made in wake of last week’s European Union summit and re-approaching the critical 7%-level deemed as unsustainable in the long-term.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the region’s economic outlook faces downside risks, adding that indicators for the second quarter point to weakening growth in the euro zone.

Draghi refused to speculate, however, on the chances of a third round of Long Term Refinancing Operations, which provides cheap loans to European banks to encourage them to lend.

The comments came after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low 0.75% in July, in a bid to bolster faltering growth in the region.

Gold prices were well-supported earlier in the week, hitting a high of USD1,625.25 on July 3 amid expectations for further easing measures by central banks around the world.

In addition to the ECB rate cut, Bank of England policymakers voted Thursday to increase the size of its quantitative easing program by GBP50 billion to GBP375 billion, in order to shield the recession hit U.K. economy from the ongoing debt crisis in the euro zone.

Elsewhere, China surprised traders by cutting interest rates for the second time in less than a month, signaling that growth is slowing more than Beijing expected.

Monetary stimulus by central banks and governments is bullish for gold. The yellow metal can benefit from such an environment of easy money because of expectations that ample liquidity would put a damper on the value of paper currencies.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery settled at USD27.07 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, dropping 1.55% on the week. Prices fell to as low as USD26.93 earlier Friday, the lowest since June 29.

Meanwhile, copper for September delivery retreated 2.4% over the week to settle at a one-week low of USD3.413 a pound.

Copper prices have been under pressure in recent sessions as concerns over the outlook for global economic growth dampened demand for the industrial metal.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching ECB President Draghi’s testimony before the European Parliament, on Monday, as well as a two-day meeting of euro zone finance ministers, amid expectations for a final agreement on aid for Spanish banks.

Markets will also be eyeing the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting as well as U.S. data on trade balance and unemployment claims.

Gold traders watch the Fed minutes closely for hints of whether the central bank will engineer another round of asset purchases, or quantitative easing.

Gold gained as much as 15% earlier this year to hit USD1,790 an ounce after the Fed said in January it would keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014 and indicated that it could introduce a fresh round of asset-purchases.

However, prices have lost almost 12% since late February, as the Fed failed to deliver more easing and amid concerns over the euro zone’s deepening debt crisis, which has fueled demand for the precious metal's hedge, the greenback.

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