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Gold futures - Weekly outlook: February 4 - 8

Published 02/03/2013, 06:24 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures ended Friday’s session higher, as investors remained focused on the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy following the release of key U.S. labor and manufacturing data.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery edged up 0.4% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,66815 a troy ounce.

Earlier in the session, prices rose to as high as USD1,682.85 a troy ounce. On the week, gold futures prices rose 0.55%.

Gold prices were likely to find support at USD1,653.35 a troy ounce, the low from January 28 and near-term resistance at USD1,694.75, the high from January 23.

Gold futures shot up to the highest levels of the session following the release of U.S. jobs data which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain its monetary easing program.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the economy added 157,000 jobs in December, slightly below expectations for a 160,000 increase, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% for 7.8% in November.

But prices pared gains after data showed that U.S. manufacturing activity improved to a nine-month high in January while consumer sentiment unexpectedly improved in January.

The the Institute of Supply Management said that its U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 53.1 last month from 50.2 in December, well above expectations for a rise to 50.6.

Meanwhile, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading of its consumer sentiment index improved to 73.8 in January from 71.3 the previous month, beating expectations for a reading of 71.5.

The slew of data came two days after a report showed that the U.S. economy contracted 0.1% in the fourth quarter, confounding expectations for growth of 1.1% and a sharp slowdown from growth of 3.1% in the preceding quarter.

On Wednesday, the Fed said it will continue its USD85 billion a month quantitative easing program “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially.”

The U.S. central bank also reiterated that it will continue to hold interest rates close to zero until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%.

The Fed’s quantitative easing program is viewed by many investors as a major source of liquidity that weakens the U.S. dollar and helps support prices of commodities and other hard assets, including gold.

In the week ahead, gold traders will be anticipating the outcome of upcoming policy meeting by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday.

U.S. data on service sector activity scheduled for Tuesday will also be in focus. Any improvement in the U.S. economy could scale back expectations for further easing from the Fed.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for March delivery climbed 1.5% on Friday to settle the week at USD31.83 a troy ounce. On the week, silver future prices advanced 2.05%.

Meanwhile, copper for March delivery rose 1.2% Friday to close the week at USD3.777 a pound, the strongest level since October 5. Copper prices rallied 3.15% on the week.

Sentiment on the industrial metal improved amid indications the global economy is gaining momentum.

The final reading of China’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released Friday rose to a 24-month high of 52.3 in January, compared to an initial estimate of 51.9.

Also Friday, the euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index improved to 47.9 from 46.1 in December, the slowest rate of contraction in 11 months.

Copper is sensitive to the global economic outlook because of its widespread uses in construction and manufacturing.

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