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Gold / Silver / Copper futures - weekly outlook: October 21 - 25

Published 10/20/2013, 06:26 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures ended Friday’s session lower, but prices were expected to remain supported amid speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain its stimulus program well into 2014 to support the economy following the U.S. government shutdown.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.63% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,314.60 a troy ounce.

Comex gold prices rose by 0.45% earlier in the day to hit a session high of USD1,328.90 a troy ounce, the strongest level since October 8.

The December contract rallied 3.17% on Thursday to settle at USD1,323.00 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,273.80 a troy ounce, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD1,330.10, the high from October 8.

On the week, the precious metal gained 3.24%, the biggest weekly advance in two months.

Gold prices surged on Thursday as the U.S. dollar came under heavy selling pressure after the U.S. Congress passed a bill to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling, with just hours to spare ahead of a deadline to avert an unprecedented sovereign debt default.

The deal will fund the government until January 15 and raise the government borrowing limit until February 7. Both sides also agreed to talks over broad budget issues in an attempt to reach a longer-term deal by December 13.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, lost 0.9% on the week to settle at an eight-month low of 79.69 on Friday.

The drop in the dollar came amid fears that the impact of the government shutdown on the already fragile economic recovery would prompt the Fed to the delay plans for scaling back its stimulus program until at least the start of next year.

Gold prices have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would start tapering its USD85-billion-a-month asset-purchase program by the end of the year.

The central bank is scheduled to meet October 29-30 to review the economy and assess policy.

The possibility of another debt crisis also loomed, as the temporary solution does not resolve the underlying budgetary issues dividing Republicans and Democrats.

In the week ahead, U.S. data releases will be in focus after the shutdown delayed the release of some key economic reports. The Department of Labor is to publish the September nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday and data on durable goods orders is to be published on Friday.

Gold traders have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery eased down 0.15% on Friday to settle the week at USD21.91 a troy ounce. Silver prices settled 2.72% higher at USD21.94 on Thursday.

On the week, silver future prices rose 3.01%, the first weekly gain in six weeks.

Meanwhile, copper for December delivery inched up 0.06% on Friday to close the week at USD3.299 a pound. On Thursday, copper futures shed 0.33% to settle at USD3.297 a pound.

Prices of the red metal advanced 0.9% on the week, amid speculation demand from top consumer China will remain robust.

Official data released on Friday showed that China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.8% in the third quarter, in line with expectations and up from 7.5% in the three months to June.

A separate report showed that industrial production in China rose by an annualized rate of 10.2% in September, exceeding expectations for a 10.1% increase, after a 10.4% rise the previous month.

The data eased concerns over the strength of the recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

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