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SCENARIOS-Rome G7: testing unity in time of crisis

Published 02/12/2009, 08:18 AM
Updated 02/12/2009, 08:24 AM

Feb 12 (Reuters) - Finance ministers and central bankers of the G7 industrialised powers discuss the global financial crisis in Rome on Friday and Saturday.

Here's an outline of what might come of the meeting, which will also be attended in part by Russia and representatives of international agencies such as the IMF, World Bank, WTO, OECD and UNCTAD.

TOUCHY-FEELY

With a new U.S. administration only falling into place and the G20 forum competing for the lead role on global governance right now, officials say the G7 will be short on decisions but long on efforts to show there is a semblance of international coordination in response to the financial and economic crisis.

PROTECTIONISM:

Expect the G7 to renew a general commitment to free trade in principle but avoid in their communique any reference to specific cases where that pledge is not being respected.

Paris's auto bailout is causing friction within Europe and the 'buy American' clause in the U.S. stimulus plan has everyone worried -- making it more difficult for G7 countries to point a finger at Russia, Brazil and Argentina over new tariff barriers.

Some officials say new U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner could sign up to a declaration which would help him tell the U.S. Congress it must make some effort to respect the concerns of G7 partners over the 'buy American' clause.

Situation unclear.

FINANCIAL REFORM:

One point of possible movement is the expansion of the Financial Stability Forum, targetted as one focus for global reform of financial regulation. Haggling on who will be asked to join continues, with UK finance minister Alistair Darling telling an Italian daily on Thursday that Brazil, China, India and Russia must be added to the group.

This G7 is probably at best a stock-taking moment as efforts continue in G20 working groups to prepare concrete delivery on last November's G20 summit action plan for better regulation and supervision of banks and financial markets. Progress is slow and do not expect Rome G7 to do more than renew a commitment to aim for something significant by the April G20 summit, officials say.

CURRENCIES:

Nobody is totally happy with exchange rates but nobody is keen to squabble in public over currency competition so the expectation is that the G7 communique will not change much, even if it repeats the line that excessive volatility is undesirable and it would be good to see less inflexibility in Asian currencies such as the Chinese yuan.

Nobody is pushing to use the occasion to raise heat further on China, nor to say it is manipulating its exchange rate.

Yen rise and sterling decline are also issues but more for corridor chats than negotiation per se, officials say.

STIMULANTS AND TOXIC ASSETS:

It's probably more about comparing notes than hatching new ideas at this stage, officials say, though with the U.S. plan nearing adoption, some debate is likely about how much each economy is doing and whether it's enough.

Toxic assets rising fast up the agenda of emergencies to tackle but little sign of a one-size-fits-all strategy emerging.

OBAMA MANIA MEETS REALPOLITIK:

Washington's G7 partners expect the new administration to be more multilateral and are eager to hear from Geithner at his first such meeting as Treasury Secretary.

He is still scrambling to pull a team together and come up with a coherent recession remedy, and there may be a limit to how much else his G7 partners will hear from him, some say. (compiled by Brian Love; editing by Patrick Graham)

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