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Crude remains at 2016 highs, amid signs of further U.S. output declines

Published 04/28/2016, 02:16 PM
Updated 04/28/2016, 02:40 PM
Both Brent and WTI rose by more than 1% on Thursday to close above $46 a barrel
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Investing.com -- Crude futures hit 2016 yearly-highs for the second consecutive session on Thursday, amid a broadly weaker dollar, as investors continued to digest signs of massive reductions in U.S. production, somewhat easing concerns related to the current global supply glut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for June delivery traded in a broad range between $44.95 and $46.12 a barrel, before settling at $46.02, up 0.69 or 1.52% on the session. With a late rally, U.S. crude futures surged above $46 a barrel in the final minutes of Thursday's session, a level it previously reached in early-November. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for July delivery wavered between $46.52 and $47.82 a barrel, before closing at $47.76, up 0.83 or 1.77% on the session.

Both benchmarks of crude are up by approximately 40% since falling to 12-year lows in mid-February.

Energy traders continued to react to reports of a modest build in U.S. inventories from last week. On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report that domestic crude inventories rose by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on April 22. At 540.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year. Meanwhile, the Energy Department said stockpiles at the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma rose by 1.75 million barrels last week, remaining near full storage capacity. Cushing, the main delivery point for NYMEX oil, is the nation's largest storage facility.

At the same time, U.S. production fell sharply by 15,000 barrels per day to 8.938 million bpd, dropping to fresh 18-month lows. The recent declines in U.S. output add support to forecasts of deep reductions in output nationwide, as high-cost U.S. shale producers continue to be forced offline due to prohibitively low oil prices. Last week, the influential Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that Non-OPEC production could fall by as much as 700,000 bpd this year, its highest amount in a quarter century.

Investors also monitored developments in Venezuela, as protests regarding prolonged water, power and food shortages intensified throughout the country. Earlier this week, the Venezuelan government announced plans to schedule a two-day work week in an effort to preserve its national power grid. In March, Venezuelan production fell by 14,000 bpd to 2.515 million bpd. Venezuela is the sixth-largest producer in OPEC and the largest outside of the Middle East.

The dollar also fell sharply on Thursday, as currency traders reacted to a relatively dovish monetary policy statement from the Federal Reserve from the previous session. On Wednesday afternoon, the U.S. central bank held short-term interest rates steady for the third consecutive month, while providing hints that any future rate hikes will be gradual. The Bank of Japan also surprised many foreign exchange traders in the overnight, Asian session by maintaining its deposit rate at negative 0.1%. The BOJ was widely expected to approve further easing measures at the closely-watched meeting.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 0.55% to an intraday low of 93.66 amid the release of downbeat U.S. economic data. Earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said U.S. GDP increased by 0.5% in the first quarter, slightly below consensus forecasts of 0.7%. The dollar index remains near eight-month lows.

Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

Despite the recent rebound, global oil prices are still down by more than 50% from their peak of $115 a barrel in June, 2014.

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