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Trade Desk Thoughts:
Dollar Index, Commodity, and Equity Outlook
Dollar Index
The 4 hour trend is long, as the global markets re-connect the dots and tenuously buy the Usd in-line with the selling of stocks and commodities. The 4 hour global market trends are favoring the short side of risk, and the long side of the dollar. Near-term price action on the dollar index components are very ugly and are not for those with a weak constitution. Favor a straddle.
Crude Oil
The 4 hour trend is short. Oil was recently trading at $74 per barrel after containing the selling seen in the previous sessions. Price action dropped down to test daily chart support at 72.50, but could not hold there. The long speculative interest in crude oil trade banked profit recently and in doing so aided the long side of Usd near-term buying. Favor a straddle.
S&P Futures
The 4 hour trend is short across the global equity market. The latest global cash sessions saw further selling, but with very low momentum after five sessions of relentless selling pressure. Asian and European futures trade attempted to move sentiment higher, but as waves of risk aversion hit the S&P cash market, things turned into a sea of red. The Usd is not moving up at the same percentage rate that stocks are moving down, and that may allow a short dollar play if equities find buyers. Favor a straddle.
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