Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

FOREX-Euro inches up; underpinned by ECB bond buys

Published 12/03/2010, 06:00 AM
Updated 12/03/2010, 06:04 AM

* Euro rises 0.3 percent to $1.3260

* Potential for further rebound from ECB bond buying

* Overall euro downtrend prevails; U.S. jobs data due

(Adds quote, detail)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The euro edged higher on Friday as reported central bank buying of Portuguese and Irish debt in recent days soothed investor nerves and helped the currency rebound from a 2-1/2 month low, but sentiment remained fragile.

The market's immediate focus moved to U.S. payrolls data later in the day, with a surprisingly strong U.S. housing number on Thursday adding to budding optimism on the U.S. economy.

The euro stood at $1.3260, up 0.3 percent on the day and well above a 2-1/2 month low of $1.2969 plumbed on Tuesday after massive selling in euro zone periphery government bonds.

Traders said the ECB continued to buy Portuguese and Irish debt on Friday, easing investor panic over euro zone debt for now.

Large euro/dollar option expiries at $1.3200 and $1.3250 were slowing the rally, while the technical picture was helped by the euro holding above its 200-day moving average at $1.3123.

Some analysts said the euro's bounce could have further to go, given the positioning in the market and thin liquidity.

"The euro has further room to correct to the upside as strong ECB bond-buying will support sentiment and speculative positioning is short," said Manuel Oliveri, currency analyst at UBS in Zurich.

"It can move up to $1.3400/$1.3450 but it remains a sell on rallies - the overall trend is still down," he said.

Sentiment towards the smaller euro zone states remained precariously balanced after Standard and Poor's warned on Thursday it may downgrade Greece in three months.

"The ECB has done a good job in reassuring the markets this week and the euro zone PMI this morning has also helped, but the euro is not out of the woods yet," said Jane Foley, senior currency analyst at Rabobank.

The Markit Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which surveys more than 2,000 businesses ranging from banks to hotels, rose in November to 55.4 from 53.3 in October and beating an earlier flash estimate of 55.2.

The euro's 100-day moving average, at around $1.3327, was seen as the next resistance level. More important resistance lurked in the $1.3334-64 area, its August peak and a 38.2 percent retracement of its June-November rally.

The sharp fall in the yields on Spanish, Portuguese and other countries' bonds offset initial disappointment after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet did not explicitly commit the bank to ramping up bond buying on Thursday.

PAYROLLS

Traders were looking to the U.S. jobs data, due at 1330 GMT, which is expected to show an increase of 140,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey.

Although data on Thursday showed initial jobless claims rose more than expected, anecdotal evidence of strong sales around the Thanksgiving holiday and a surprise jump in the house sales index boosted investor risk appetite.

"The impact of today's U.S. payrolls report on risk appetite is likely to be the key determinant of the dollar's response. Since the trend has been towards stronger data flow in the U.S., a weak report is likely to represent a bigger shock to the market than strength," said Citibank analysts in a note to clients.

Some traders said a strong jobs figure was likely to encourage more risk appetite, which could help the euro.

The dollar changed hands at 83.50 yen, down 0.4 percent from late U.S. levels and off Monday's two-month high of 84.41 yen. Strong support was seen at the top end of the pair's Ichimoku cloud at around 83.18. (Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.