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FOREX-Euro at 2-month low, focus moves to Portugal, Spain

Published 11/28/2010, 11:03 PM
Updated 11/28/2010, 11:08 PM
EUR/JPY
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* Euro dips through $1.3200 to lowest in 2 months

* Market looking beyond Ireland package to Portugal, Spain

* Aussie remains weak on fear over China tightening fallout

By Charlotte Cooper and Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The euro fell to its lowest in two months against the dollar on Monday as the market looked past a rescue package for Ireland to other euro zone economies and a euro zone crisis resolution mechanism.

EU finance ministers endorsed an 85 billion-euro ($115 billion) loan package to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit, and approved outlines of a permanent crisis-resolution system which could make private bond holders share the burden of restructuring sovereign debt bought after 2013. [ID:nLDE6AR0MC]

A key point for investors is whether the EU has done enough to stem fears from spilling over to other euro zone members such as Portugal, a problem not resolved after Greece was bailed out earlier this year.

"There was an end of uncertainty at least about the timing and the size of the (Irish) bailout and people bought the euro, but it was temporary," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist Japan at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

"The focus is moving on to Spain and Portugal."

Many traders think that the European Financial Stability Facility, a joint EU-IMF fund created in May, may not have enough funds to support Spain, whose economy is the world's ninth-largest at nearly twice the size of Portugal, Ireland and Greece combined. [ID:nLDE6AR09R]

"I don't think anything has changed over the weekend... The problem is that if Spain does need a rescue, they cannot fund it with the current facility," said a trader at a European bank.


Interactive timeline on the Eurozone debt crisis in 2010:

http://link.reuters.com/nyx95q

Multimedia coverage on the Euro Zone Crisis:

http://r.reuters.com/hus75h

Graphic on sovereign debt woes: http://r.reuters.com/zem66q

How serious is Korea peninsula situation? [ID:nTOE6AR01H]


FROM IRELAND TO IBERIA

The euro fell as far as $1.3182 before bouncing back to $1.3235. It fell through its 100-day moving average on Friday, a bearish signal, and the next target is its 200-day moving average currently at $1.3131. A break of that level could push the euro back to around $1.27, said the European bank trader.

Against the yen, the euro stood at 111.00 yen , down from 111.34 yen late on Friday.

"There's absolutely no indication that the agreed package for Ireland is going to soothe those concerns stemming from the Iberian peninsula," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec.

Ireland said the emergency loans would run for an average of 7.5 years, and EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the final interest rate would likely be about 6 percent, slightly lower than what some had feared. [ID:nWEA2085]

Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank, said the euro could continue to fall until around Christmas but it was likely to find support around $1.2988, a 76.2 percent retracement of its rise from August to early November.

"The whole thing has a strong sense of deja vu after the Greek debt crisis in May. People talked about the euro's demise and so on at that time, too. But the truth is, Europe now has some sort of safety net in place," he said.

The dollar was up at its highest levels in two months against a basket of major currencies, at 80.390 <.DXY> after climbing as high as 80.652.

The U.S. currency briefly ticked to a two-month high of 84.20 yen , holding firm after a gain on Friday, but quickly retreated to 84.11 yen.

It has breached its 100-day moving average at 84.09 yen but needs a clean break there to push on to the next resistance level around 84.40 yen, the highs of late September, and psychological resistance at 85.00.

The Australian dollar slipped to its lowest since early October, dropping as far as $0.9600 .

"Some investors are cutting long positions in the Aussie, which has been their core position in recent months, as they see a yellow light flashing on the Asian growth engine after China's tightening," said the European bank trader.

China has been taking a raft of tightening steps in recent weeks, including hiking banks' reserve requirements, to cope with soaring inflation.

Investors are keeping a close eye on developments on the Korean peninsula, where China has called for emergency talks to resolve the crisis between North and South Korea. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and Reuters FX analysts Krishna Kumar in Sydney and Rick Lloyd in Singapore; Editing by Joseph Radford and Edmund Klamann)

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