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INTERVIEW-German trade group fears forex spat to hit growth

Published 10/19/2010, 09:59 AM
Updated 10/19/2010, 10:04 AM

* BGA chief sees 2011 German growth slowing to below 1.5 pct

* Says weaker dollar may prompt worldwide devaluation spiral

* Says protectionism would hit German, EU economies hard

* Does not support calls for German wage hikes

(Adds quotes, background, details)

By Sarah Marsh and Gernot Heller

BERLIN, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Germany's economy will grow by less than 1.5 percent in 2011, losing steam under the twin threats of protectionism and a spiral of currency devaluations, the head of the country's main foreign trade group (BGA) said.

The estimate from the BGA, which earlier predicted the rate of growth of German exports would halve next year, undercut a forecast by leading think tanks last week for 2 percent growth in Europe's largest economy.

Cabinet sources told Reuters at the weekend that the government would raise its forecast to just under 2 percent.

"My expectation is for just under 1.5 percent, so between 1.25 and 1.5 percent for the coming year," BGA President Anton Boerner told Reuters in an interview.

Speaking before China raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years on Tuesday, sending the dollar higher against a basket of currencies, Boerner said the world economy would likely slow down in 2011.

That was especially likely if the dollar fell in the wake of a more expansive U.S. monetary policy and triggered a spiral of currency devaluations.

"I see some risks coming especially from the Federal Reserve and Mr Bernanke's printing too many dollars," said Boerner.

"This would in my opinion weaken the dollar, then we will have some kind of round of (currency) weakening. The other currencies and of course the euro will suffer from this because we will be the last to weaken our currency." ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Reuters Insider interview with the BGA's Anton Boerner: http://link.reuters.com/sag29p ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Currency tensions have escalated in recent weeks in the run-up to meetings of the Group of 20 leading nations in South Korea, with countries at odds over what exchange rates are appropriate for fostering balanced growth - though China's rate hike took some of the heat out of the debate. [ID:nTOE69E02T]

Concerns over the impact of a stronger euro on Germany's to date impressive economic recovery were highlighted earlier this month when data showed exports fell in August, narrowing the trade balance.

Underlying these disputes, economists say, is the fear that countries will slip into a tit-for-tat round of devaluations in an attempt to make their exports more competitive and preserve jobs.

"If we see real pressure coming out from the American taxpayer to do something, to short down the unemployment rate, then indeed I fear that the dollar will go weaker," said Boerner, adding that a global devaluation race could raise inflation pressures worldwide in the medium term.

PROTECTIONISM THREAT

"I fear another thing -- that there will be more protectionism in worldwide trade and this will really harm the European and German economy," said Boerner.

Boerner said tariffs on Chinese imports being discussed in the United States were a dangerous development.

Germany was long the world's biggest exporter of goods until it was overtaken by China last year. German exports fell sharply in 2009 -- when the economy suffered its sharpest downturn since World War Two -- but have bounced back this year.

Earlier on Tuesday, the BGA said Germany would export goods worth at least 1 trillion euros for the first time next year, forecasting foreign sales would grow some 16 percent in 2010 and up to seven percent in 2011. [ID:nLDE69I0TB]

The World Trade Organization said on Monday governments had largely resisted resorting to conventional trade measures such as higher tariffs to protect jobs in the crisis, but friction over exchange rates risked undermining that. [ID:nLDE69I0JH]

Boerner rejected growing calls among policymakers and trade unions for higher wages in Germany, saying this would damage the country's competitiveness.

"We have to push up German domestic demand, not via wage increases but via an increase in domestic investments," he said. "There we have a big lack, especially in construction."

(Editing by John Stonestreet)

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