Black Friday is Now! Don’t miss out on up to 60% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Euro Outlook: Sideways Trade Ahead

Published 05/17/2016, 09:12 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
EUR/USD
-

EUR/USD

The daily EUR/USD has been sideways for 6 weeks. All trading ranges contain tops and bottoms. The bulls see a broad bull channel. The bears see a wedge top. [Note that yesterday's chart was a 20-, not a 120-minute chart]

The EUR/USD daily chart has been sideways for a couple of months. It is still forming higher lows and is still in a broad bull channel. It had a wedge top 3 weeks ago and 2 small legs down. When the legs are in a tight channel like that, they are usually part of the 1st leg of a bigger 2 legged pullback. The daily chart is neutral and in breakout mode.

It had a bear breakout on Friday. Instead of today showing strong follow-through selling in the form of a big bear bar, which typically happens at the start of a bear trend, yesterday was a bull doji. This is weak follow-through selling, and it is consistent with the idea that the bear breakout only has about a 40 – 50% chance of becoming a measuring gap.

The selloff might test the April 25 bottom of the most recent bull leg at around 1.1214 (the most recent higher low in the broad bull channel). However, the lack of consecutive big bear bars in the selloff from the May 3 wedge top make a trading range more likely than a bear trend. The EUR/USD will probably be mostly sideways for at least a week or two.

A broad bull channel needs higher lows. That April 25 higher low is therefore a magnet. The bears want to get below it so that traders will conclude that the bull trend (broad bull channel) on the daily chart as ended. Most trends are followed by trading ranges. The odds are that there are buyers below that low. However, if there is a strong bear breakout, the bears could take control.

The daily chart is in a 3 day tight trading range, and had trading range price action overnight. Online Forex day traders are still scalping, waiting for a strong breakout and follow-through.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.