Each year in January, April, July and October, the INSEE releases a survey on investment expectations (nominal terms) in the manufacturing industry (covering this way 25% of productive investment in France). Admittedly, these expectations must not be taken at face value: as the chart illustrates, they can be quite off the mark (the investment here shown is for the whole non-financial corporate sector) and changing from one survey to the other. However, they do give a helpful indication on a key growth component and an encouraging one as it happens: indeed, according to the January survey, business managers now forecast a 5% rise in their investment spending versus a first estimate at 0% according to last October survey. Investment growth would therefore remain on a rather swift pace, similar to 2016 and consistent with our own forecast.
by Hélène BAUDCHON