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Is Consumer Deleveraging Over?

Published 12/08/2011, 04:18 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

The U.S. economy has rarely done badly when its consumers were in spending mood. The acceleration in second half growth was largely a result of consumers finding back their mojo. The economic outlook for 2012 will again depend on what happens with consumers and there is reason to be optimistic on that front. In addition to getting support from an uptrending labour market, spending will also benefit from the apparent stabilization in consumer deleveraging. True, mortgage credit outstanding continues to drop, but it’s doing so at a slower pace. Moreover, as today’s Hot Chart shows, non-mortgage credit (even excluding student loans) registered in Q3 its first quarterly increase in three years, helped by rising auto loans. That together with the stabilization in the savings rate, is a sign that we may have seen the worst of the deleveraging process. Add to that a much reduced negative wealth effect from housing and it’s clear that American consumers offer much promise in 2012. Of course, a global recession and/or political shenanigans are potential obstacles to that promise being fulfilled.

U.S. Is consumer deleveraging over

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