EUR/USD Daily Analysis: Our short-term target of 1.36 was hit this morning, getting as high as 1.3643 on continued USD weakness. It seems the post-FOMC analysis has focused on the fact that Yellen stressed a non-mechanical rise of interest rates after asset purchases cease. In other words, a retreat from the “6 months” Yellen offered last time and a “whenever we feel it is appropriate” stance. Ignoring the “you can leave when I say you can leave!” parental tone this strikes, short-term price technical analysis is flipping more bullish with a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart (orange line on daily RSI), a bullish momentum reading on the 4h chart, with all of this being supported by a bullish rising support on the weekly chart (you can just see this on the daily chart, a light blue line in the bottom right).
4h Chart
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Our Preferred Trades*: Technically, there is a setup here for a short on the 4h charts as price just touches overbought around 1.3630, with a bearish shooting start last 4h candle. Bears have so far been unable to close below that shooting star, though, leaving the technical analysis mixed at best. As such we will pass on the short and look to get long with the short-term momentum on a dip to 1.3560-1.3600 with bullish candlestick confirmation, targeting a rally to 1.3670-1.3690 (the 38.2% retracement of the May drop).
Yesterday’s EUR/USD SwingPRO Signal Result: No setups triggered yesterday.
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: See preferred trade above.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
