Landscape Of Energy Supply And Demand Shifting

Essentially today is a 'no number' Friday, which means there is little to no data being presented that should have an effect on price discovery. That would seem to indicate that it would be a slow trade day, but this can be a bit of a red herring, as it can open the door for larger traders to attempt to have undue influence on the price action. With little new fundamental information to base trade direction on, the volatility can increase as the market searches both ways for some tangible direction. There have been many a 'no number Fridays' that have taken their toll on smaller traders.

As I have touched on recently, the landscape of energy supply and demand is constantly changing. The largest impact that we are seeing currently can be found in the Saudis recent commitment to refining more fuels for export. While that will increase the supplies of downstream products like diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, etc, it will also decrease the upstream supply of raw crude. This relationship between refined and raw is known as the crack spread (crude is 'cracked' into RBOB and heating oil). This spread is one that should be monitored, as it will give indications of a possible oversupply of refined material that begins to outpace the stockpile of crude.

The other key spread to keep an eye on is the WTI-Brent crude spread. We have seen it maintain somewhere near the lows of the spread between a 4 to 6 dollar premium to the Brent side. The key factor in this relationship will come if/when the US eases up its restrictions on exports. Should the US be allowed to bring its WTI to market on other shores, that will most certainly change the price relationship between the world’s two largest crude markets. Currently, we are seeing that spread tighten, as fears over Greece affect the demand on Brent slightly more than they do for WTI.

Natural gas continues to coil in the high 2.70s to low 2.80s. It appears to be ready for a launch, particularly following yesterday's less than expected build in inventories. However, it is certainly taking its time. Next week is options expiration for the contract for July, so it will be interesting to see if the market makes a strong push to 3 dollars for the settle on the 26th. There is some precedent for markets looking to break out of a range to settle towards an extreme at expiration. If this happens, it would be a very strong bullish signal.

Disclaimer: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.