Futures Dip Slightly, British PM Saga Heats Up

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Futures are down slightly ahead of the opening bell on this, the last day of calendar Q2, following 2 big up days in the markets that won back more than half what was lost after last Friday’s Brexit decision and the Monday aftermath. The Dow, for instance, was down roughly 800 points as of this time Tuesday morning, but have gained back around 550 points since then.

Considering the global collective gasp that came after the Brexit decision, cooler heads seem to have (so far) prevailed. Of course, there is plenty still to slog through and hash out — September is when a new Prime Minister of the UK shall be decided, and it will take several quarters beyond until the decoupling of Great Britain from the European Union (EU) is complete. But if the past week is any indication, this may not wind up being the fiscal disaster many have been expecting.

Speaking of the new British Prime Minister (PM), things did take a rather dramatic turn overnight. Leader of he Leave movement and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, as of yesterday considered a front-runner for the PM seat, was verbally derided by conservative MP (member of Parliament) Michael Gove, who was quoted as saying Johnson “cannot provide the leadership” for a proper Brexit. This comes as a surprise to those who felt Gove would naturally support Johnson for the Prime Ministership.

Conservative MP Theresa May, perhaps now the PM candidate front-runner now that Johnson has stated he no longer intends to run for the post, had been in David Cameron’s Remain camp. However, speaking earlier she said, “Brexit is Brexit.” If she were to become PM, in other words, there would be no back-door deals to take back the vote and keep Great Britain part of the EU. This not only honors the democratic process at work in the UK, but keeps the EU from being forced to consider a do-over, which they might be profoundly reluctant to do.

Here at home, Weekly Jobless Claims rose 10K from last week’s slightly downward revised 258K to 268K on the week. For months, with only one or two outliers, jobless claims have been within a very manageable 250-275K per week, which is consistent with monthly unemployment numbers hovering around 4.7% — also an attractive and manageable figure. Continuing claims slipped to 2.12 million from a revised 2.14 million last week.

Finally, speaking of non-farm payroll, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report will be released a week from tomorrow. May numbers shocked the markets with a very paltry 38K jobs generated; between the BLS and ADP ( (NASDAQ:ADP) ) jobs reports next week, we may be able to see mrs clearly what’s happening in the U.S. labor market.

Mark Vickery
Senior Editor

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