Boyd (BYD) Down 66.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Boyd Gaming (BYD). Shares have lost about 66.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Boyd due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Boyd Gaming Q4 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates

Boyd Gaming reported solid fourth-quarter 2019 results, with earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Moreover, the top and the bottom line increased on a year-over-year basis.

Let’s Discuss

In the quarter under review, adjusted earnings came in at 50 cents per share. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents. The bottom line surged 56.3% year over year on strong revenues and higher margins.

Total revenues of $833.1 million in the reported quarter beat the consensus mark of $825 million. Moreover, the top line moved up 5.2% year over year on the back of strong segmental performance.

Total adjusted EBITDAR during the reported quarter totaled $227.6 million, up 9.1% year over year.

Segmental Details

Las Vegas Locals

Revenues in this segment amounted to $223.9 million, up 0.6% year over year. Moreover, the segment’s adjusted EBITDAR increased 0.3% to $73.3 million from $73 million in the year-ago quarter. This segment recorded the highest fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDAR since 2005. Adjusted EBITDAR margins rose nearly 350 basis points (bps).

Downtown Las Vegas

Revenues in the segment moved up 3.4% from the prior-year quarter’s figure to $69.6 million. Adjusted EBITDAR of $19.6 million also increased 6.5% from $18.4 million in the prior-year quarter. The upside was primarily driven by consistent strength in Hawaiian customer segments and strong pedestrian traffic throughout the downtown area.

Midwest and South Segment

Revenues in this segment increased 7.6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $539.7 million. Adjusted EBITDAR was $157.4 million, up 11.1% from $141.8 million in the year-ago quarter. The company's five newly-acquired properties generated adjusted EBITDAR growth of approximately 6% from the prior-year quarter’s levels. Notably, the performance was backed by solid operating results in the newly-acquired Ameristar and Belterra properties.

Other Financial Details

As of Dec 31, 2019, the company had cash on hand of $250 million. Total debt amounted to $3.81 billion.

2019 Highlights

In 2019, total revenues amounted to $3.33 billion compared with $2.63 billion in 2018.

Adjusted earnings per share for the year ended Dec 31, 2019 was at $1.79 compared with $1.33 in 2018.

Adjusted EBITDAR was $896.7 million compared with $681.3 million in 2018.

2020 Guidance

For 2020, Boyd Gaming expects total adjusted EBITDAR in the range of $915-$935 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Boyd has a strong Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Boyd has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.