Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.35; (P) 130.60; (R1) 131.35;
GBP/JPY dips further to 129.71 today, edging close to mentioned 128.92/129.32 support zone. As discussed before, downside is expected to be contained there to conclude the decline from 165.02. Break of 134.36 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring strong rally to 139.19 resistance first. However, sustained break there will argue GBP/JPY is rebuilding downside momentum for further decline.
In the bigger picture, while decline from 215.87 is still in progress, it might be near to completion. The fall from 215.87 is treated as a five wave sequence, with first wave completed at 184.47, second at 197.42, third at 139.02, fourth at 165.02. In other words, decline from 165.02 is probably the fifth wave in such sequence. Note that firstly, the structure of the fall from 165.02 suggests that it might be in form of a diagonal triangle (or falling wedge). Secondly, bullish convergence conditions are seen in daily MACD and RSI. Both are supporting the view that it's a fifth wave. Also note that 129.32 key long term support is in proximity to 61.8% projection of 197.42 to 139.02 from 165.02 at 128.92.
Having said that, we'd expect the decline from 215.87 to make a medium term bottom after meeting 128.92/129.32 support zone. Break of 139.19 will be consistent with this case and bring strong rebound towards first medium term resistance at 165.02 at least. On the downside, however, sustained break of 128.92/129.32 will pave the way to 100% projection target at 106.62.
