The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday lower.
- ES pivot 2267.92. Holding below is bearish..
- Rest of week bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap
Sigh – last Thursday I said the market would go lower on Friday, so it went higher. And last night I said it would go higher on Monday, so naturally it went lower. Doh! Sometimes you just can't win. Basically, the Dow is now clearly congesting just below the 20K mark in one of its trendless alternating up and down day modes. This is not conducive to neat technical predictions, but what the heck, we'll give it a go anyway and see where Tuesday is headed.
The technicals
The VIX: Last night I noted that I was "looking for a move higher soon here". I wasn't sure it would come on Monday but it did, with the VIX up 2.12%. It was basically an inverted hammer but the VIX is now very close to oversold and the stochastic is on the verge of a bullish crossover. It sure looks like it has more upside potential than downside risk right now.
Market index futures: Monday night, all three futures were lower at 12:24 AM EST with ES down 0.20%.
ES daily pivot: Monday night the ES daily pivot dips rose from 2268.92 to 2267.92. That now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
What a difference a day makes. What was looking last night like a decent setup for a move higher turned out to be a false alarm. With the VIX now appearing to have begun its turnaround and the futures all moving non-trivially lower in the new overnight, it's looking like dreams of Dow 20K are off the table for the time being. I may live to regret it but I'm going to just go ahead and call Tuesday lower.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.