Investor sentiment is at its most optimistic since January 2022, driven by the "Goldilocks 2024" outlook, indicating a soft landing scenario and diminishing inflation, as per Bank of America's global fund manager survey (GFS).
A notable 91% of respondents believe that Federal Reserve rate hikes are over, with a record 89% expecting lower short-term rates in the next 12 months.
Investors have reduced cash holdings to a two-year low and increased equity overweight to the highest level since February 2022. Bonds and tech are anticipated to be the primary beneficiaries of Fed cuts in the first half of 2024.
“Policy, not positioning, the new tactical driver of asset prices,” analysts at BofA said in a note.
The survey also highlighted a rotation to banks, Eurozone, and small-cap investments, while reducing exposure to real estate investment trusts (REITs) and energy.
Although investors predict weaker global growth, more than 70% anticipate a "soft" or "no" landing. The survey identifies a "hard landing" as the most significant tail risk in 2024, though only 20% consider it the base case.
The most crowded trades include being long on the 'Magnificent Seven' for 49% and short on China stocks for 22%, with China real estate viewed as the most significant credit risk.
The top contrarian trades include ”long cash & short Magnificent Seven”, as well as “long commodities, China, REITs & short bonds” in case of no landing.