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Forex - Weekly outlook: October 27 - 31

Published 10/26/2014, 07:40 AM
Updated 10/26/2014, 11:40 AM
Dollar weakens slightly on Friday
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Investing.com - The euro pushed higher against the dollar on Friday after data showed that German consumer confidence improved, while upbeat U.K. third quarter growth data underpinned investor demand for the pound.

The euro found support after the forward looking Gfk index of German consumer climate ticked up to 8.5 for November from a revised 8.4 in October. The index had fallen sharply in the preceding two months as concerns over geopolitical risks and the ensuing economic slowdown weighed.

EUR/USD was up 0.17% to 1.2668 in late trade, holding below session highs of 1.2695.

Concerns over upcoming European bank stress test results, due for release on Sunday, along with a confirmed Ebola diagnosis in New York City bolstered safe haven demand for the yen and saw the dollar weaken slightly.

USD/JPY was down 0.12% to 108.14 late Friday, after falling as low as 107.77 earlier in the session. At the same time, USD/CHF was down 0.22% to 0.9518.

In the U.K., data on Friday showed that gross domestic product expanded by 0.7% in the third quarter, slowing from 0.9% in the three months to June, but in line with forecasts. Annual GDP was up 3%, also in line with forecasts.

The data underpinned expectations that the continuing economic recovery could prompt the Bank of England to hike interest rates in the second half of next year.

GBP/USD was at 1.6083 in late trade, 0.33% higher for the day.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.19% to 85.79 late Friday. The index still ended the week higher, stabilizing following a steep selloff in the previous week.

Fears that a slowdown in global economic growth could act as a drag on the U.S. economic recovery have prompted investors to push back expectations for an increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to the second half of 2015.

In the week ahead investors will be looking ahead to the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting amid expectations that it will wind up its asset purchase program.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed statement for further indications on how soon interest rates could start to rise.

Friday’s report on euro zone consumer inflation will also be in focus, amid growing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to take additional easing steps to boost the flagging euro area economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 27

The Ifo Institute is to release its report on German business climate. The euro zone is to release data on M3 money supply and private loans.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.

The U.S. is to publish an industry report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, October 28

Japan is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders and a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, October 29

Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.

The U.K. is to report on net lending to individuals.

Canada is to produce data on raw material price inflation.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish its rate statement.

Later Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its official cash rate and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, October 30

Australia is to release a report on import prices.

The U.K. is to publish private sector data on house price inflation.

In the euro zone, Germany is to produce preliminary data on the consumer price index, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. The country is also to release a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.

Elsewhere in the euro area, Spain is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and third quarter GDP.

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

The U.S. is to publish revised data on third quarter GDP, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Friday, October 31

New Zealand is to release data on building consents.

Japan is to release reports on household spending and the consumer price index. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement. The bank is also to hold a post-policy meeting press conference.

The euro zone is to release what will be closely watched preliminary data on consumer inflation, as well as a report on the unemployment rate. In addition, Germany is to report on retail sales, while France is to publish data on consumer spending.

Canada is to publish its monthly report on GDP growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and expenditure as well as revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.

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