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Forex - Weekly outlook: November 10 - 14

Published 11/09/2014, 07:14 AM
Updated 11/09/2014, 12:14 PM
Dollar comes off highs amid profit taking after U.S. jobs report
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Investing.com - The dollar fell against the other major currencies on Friday after the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell short of economists’ expectations but still showed solid jobs growth, prompting investors to book profits on the greenback.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs in October, missing expectations for jobs growth of 231,000.

September’s figure was revised up to 256,000 from a previously reported 248,000 and August’s figure was also revised up to 203,000 from 180,000 pointing to underlying strength in the labor market.

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to a fresh six-year low of 5.8% from 5.9% in September.

The data prompted investors to sell the dollar to lock in gains following its recent rally, but did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates ahead of its other major peers.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.63% to 87.66, off the four-and-a-half year peaks of 88.31 hit earlier in the session.

EUR/USD initially touched a fresh 26-month low of 1.2358 following the release of the data, before rising 0.67% to 1.2454 in late trade. For the week, the pair was still down 0.38%.

The single currency remained under pressure after the European Central Bank reiterated its pledge on Thursday to implement further stimulus measures if needed to combat persistently low levels of inflation in the euro area.

USD/JPY was down 0.56% to 114.58 in late trade on Friday, pulling back from the seven year highs of 115.58 struck earlier in the session. The pair still ended the week with gains of 1.56% as the Bank of Japan’s surprise stimulus move on October 31 continued to weigh on the yen.

The pound also pushed higher against the dollar on Friday, with GBP/USD rising 0.26% to 1.5872, after falling to 14-month lows of 1.5791 earlier in the session.

The Canadian dollar was also higher after data on Friday showed that the country’s economy added 43,100 jobs last month, compared to expectations for a decline of 5,000. The Canadian unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a six year low of 6.5% from 6.8%.

USD/CAD was down 0.84% to 1.1327 late Friday, paring the week’s gains to 0.35%.

The Canadian dollar fell to more than five year lows against the greenback earlier in the week as steep falls in oil prices pressured the commodity exposed currency lower.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s report on third quarter growth from the euro zone, as well as the latest retail sales figures from the U.S. Thursday’s inflation report from the Bank of England will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 10

China is to release data on producer and consumer price inflation.

Australia is to publish a report on home loans.

Later in the day, Canada is to publish data on housing starts.

Tuesday, November 11

Japan is to publish data on the current account.

Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence, as well as official data on house price inflation.

Later Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to publish its financial stability report, and Governor Graeme Wheeler is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

Wednesday, November 12

Australia is to release a private sector report on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on the wage price index.

Japan is to publish data on tertiary industry activity.

The U.K. is to release data on the change in the number of people employed, the unemployment rate and average earnings.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is to publish its quarterly inflation report and Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

The euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.

Thursday, November 13

Japan is to release data on core machinery orders.

Australia is to publish private sector data on inflation expectations.

China is to produce data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

Switzerland is to report on producer price inflation.

Canada is to publish data on new house price inflation.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, November 14

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on third quarter gross domestic product, while Germany, France and Italy are also to release individual reports. The euro area is also to release revised data on consumer price inflation.

Canada is to produce data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on retail sales and import prices as well as preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

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