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Forex - Weekly outlook: March 30 - April 3

Published 03/29/2015, 06:40 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar index down for second successive week
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Investing.com - The dollar ended the week lower against a basket of other major currencies on Friday as a lukewarm report on U.S. economic growth and comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen weighed.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and below economists’ forecasts for an upward revision to 2.4%.

Another report showed that the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.0 this month from a final reading of 95.4 in February.

The dollar showed little reaction after Fed Chair Janet Yellen struck a cautious note on interest rates. In a speech, the Fed chief said a rate hike may be warranted later this year, but added that weakening inflation pressures could force the Fed to delay.

The speech echoed the Fed’s latest policy statement, released on March 18, which indicated that it may raise interest rates more gradually than markets had expected.

EUR/USD was little changed at 1.089 late Friday and ended the week with gains of 0.6%.

USD/JPY was flat at 119.14 to end the week down 0.74%, while USD/CHF was steady at 0.9624.

The pound pushed higher with GBP/USD up 0.29% to 1.4893 in late trade.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended the week down 0.66%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing the U.S. employment report for February, due out on Friday and Monday’s data on personal spending for further indications on the path of monetary policy. Tuesday’s euro zone inflation report will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 30

Japan is to publish preliminary data on industrial production.

In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

The U.K. is to produce data on net lending.

Canada is to release data on raw material price inflation.

The U.S. is to release reports on personal spending and pending home sales.

Tuesday, March 31

New Zealand is to produce reports on building consents and business confidence.

Japan is to report on average cash earnings.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and the monthly employment report. Germany is to report on retail sales and the unemployment rate.

The U.K. is to produce data on the current account.

Canada is to publish its monthly report on gross domestic product.

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 1

Japan is to publish the results of the Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes.

Australia is to release data on building approvals.

China is to publish its official manufacturing index.

The U.K. is to release survey data on manufacturing activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report, which outlines private sector jobs growth, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Thursday, April 2

Australia is to release data on the trade balance.

The U.K. is to release survey data on construction activity.

Both Canada and the U.S. are to report on their trade balances. The U.S. is also to release data on initial jobless claims and factory orders.

Friday, April 3

Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., U.S. and Canada will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

The U.S. is to round up the week with what will be a closely watched government report on non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.

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