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Forex - Weekly outlook: April 27- May 1

Published 04/26/2015, 07:18 AM
© Reuters.  Dollar index lower for second straight week
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Investing.com - The dollar ended the week lower against the other major currencies on Friday, the second consecutive weekly decline as fresh economic data underlined concerns that the recovery is losing momentum.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that orders for durable goods, excluding aircraft, fell 0.5% in March, after a downwardly revised 2.2% drop in February.

The headline figure rose 4.0%, beating expectations for a 0.6% gain, but investors focused on underlying weakness in the report.

The data came after recent weak reports on home sales, retail sales and industrial production, adding to signs of a slowdown in economic growth since the start of the year.

The weak data added to pressure on the dollar which has been hit as investors pushed back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was last down to 97.07 late Friday. The index ended the week down 0.62%.

EUR/USD was up 0.48% to 1.0874 in late trade, to end the week with gains of 0.61%.

The single currency was held in check as concerns over Greece’s debt negotiations continued. Euro area finance ministers said Friday that Greece must present a full economic reform plan by early May in order to access any further funding.

The dollar was also lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.51% to one-week lows of 118.98.

Sterling also pushed higher against the weaker dollar, with GBP/USD adding 0.88% to trade at 1.5188 late Friday. The pound shrugged off uncertainty over the outcome next month’s U.K. general elections.

In the week ahead investors will be looking to Wednesday’s Fed statement for clues on the possible timing of a rate increase. Investors will also be focusing on Wednesday’s preliminary reading on U.S. first quarter growth as well as reports on inflation, consumer confidence and manufacturing.

Central bank meetings in Japan and New Zealand will also be in focus, as will Thursday's preliminary data on euro zone inflation.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 27

Markets in New Zealand will remain closed for a holiday.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on industrial order expectations.

Tuesday, April 28

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is to speak at an event in Sydney.

Japan is to release data on retail sales.

The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on first quarter economic growth.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak at an event in Ottawa.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, April 29

New Zealand is to produce reports on the trade balance and business confidence.

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a holiday.

In the euro area, German y is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation.

The U.K. is to release a private sector report on retail sales.

The U.S. is to publish preliminary data on first quarter economic growth in addition to a report on pending home sales.

Later in the day the Federal Reserve is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, April 30

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement. New Zealand is also to release data on building consents.

Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production. The Bank of Japan is to announce its monetary policy decision and release its rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

Germany is to report on retail sales and unemployment, while Spain is to release data on inflation and economic growth. The euro zone is also to release preliminary data on consumer prices and the unemployment rate.

Later in the data Canada is to publish its monthly report on economic growth.

The U.S. is to publish data on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 1

Japan is to release a string of reports on inflation, household spending, average earnings and unemployment.

Markets in China are to remain closed for a holiday. Beijing is still to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

Australia is to release data on producer price inflation.

In Europe markets in France, Italy, Germany and Switzerland are to remain shut for holidays. Meanwhile, the U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report for the Institute of Supply Management on Manufacturing activity and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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