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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: March 17 - 21

Published 03/16/2014, 06:41 AM
USD/JPY
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EUR/JPY
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Investing.com - The yen ended the week at two-week highs against the dollar on Friday, as concerns over slowing growth in China and heightened tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine underpinned safe haven demand.

USD/JPY ended Friday’s session down 0.44% at 101.34. For the week, the pair lost 1.84%, the largest weekly decline since late January.

The pair is likely to find support at 100.85 and resistance at 101.87, Friday’s high.

Investor sentiment was hit as weak economic reports from China raised fresh concerns over the strength of the world’s second-largest economy. On Thursday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned that the economy faced "severe challenges" in 2014.

Fears over problems in China’s financial sector also sapped risk appetite following the country’s first domestic bond default this month.

Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and the West remained high ahead of Sunday's referendum in Ukraine’s Crimea region, now controlled by pro-Russian forces, on whether citizens want to join Russia.

The referendum has been condemned as "illegal" by Kiev and the West.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment declined unexpectedly in March.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked down to 79.9, from the 81.6 final reading in February. Analysts had expected the index to improve to 82.0.

Elsewhere, the euro pared losses against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY down 0.12% to 141.02 at the close, after falling as low as 140.45 earlier.

The common currency remained under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday the strong euro was dragging down euro zone inflation.

Draghi said the strength of the euro was becoming increasingly relevant to the bank’s assessment of price stability, indicating growing concerns that the appreciation of the euro could undermine the fragile recovery in the euro area.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve. The bank is also to publish its economic forecasts. Japan is to release data on the trade balance.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 17

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.

Tuesday, March 18

The U.S. is to produce data on consumer inflation, in addition to reports on building permits and housing starts.

Wednesday, March 19

Japan is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish economic forecasts for inflation and growth. The Fed statement is to be followed by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen.

Thursday, March 20

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo.

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, March 21

Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.

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