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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 23 - 27

Published 06/22/2014, 05:24 AM
Dollar ends week fractionally higher against yen
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Friday, to eke out a small weekly gain after the Federal Reserve indicated that rates would remain on hold despite the improving U.S. economic outlook.

USD/JPY edged up to 102.07 late Friday from 101.93 on Thursday. For the week, the pair eked out a gain of 0.10%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.60 and resistance at 102.40.

The greenback came under pressure after the Fed gave no indication of when interest rates could start to rise at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. In addition, the Fed’s forecast of where interest rates might reach in the long term fell from 4% to 3.75%.

The central bank cut its bond purchases by $10 billion a month, to $35 billion, saying there was "sufficient underlying strength" in the U.S. economy to continue tapering.

Despite this, the Fed lowered its forecast for growth this year to a range of 2.1% to 2.3% from 2.8 to 3.0% previously, due to "unexpected contractions" in the first quarter as a result of the unusually harsh winter.

The Fed acknowledged the recent increases in inflation and drop in unemployment, but Chair Janet Yellen said no formula was in place for when interest rates would start to rise.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, edged up to 80.41 late Friday from lows of 80.24 on Thursday. For the week, the index lost almost 0.3%.

Elsewhere, the yen ended the week lower against the firmer euro, with EUR/JPY ending Friday’s session at 138.84, for a weekly gain of 0.59%.

In the coming week, the U.S. is to release what will be closely watched data on consumer confidence, durable goods orders and home sales. Friday’s Japanese data on retail sales and inflation will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 23

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

The U.S. is to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity and private sector data on existing home sales.

Tuesday, June 24

The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence, as well as a report on new home sales.

Wednesday, June 25

The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders, as well as revised data on first quarter growth.

Thursday, June 26

The U.S. is to release data on personal income and expenditure, as well as data on inflation linked to personal spending.

Friday, June 27

Japan is to release data on retail sales, household spending and inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment.

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