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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: February 17 - 21

Published 02/16/2014, 06:00 AM
Dollar ends week lower against yen
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The dollar fell against the yen on Friday as an unexpected drop in U.S. factory output in January added to concerns that the economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

USD/JPY hit 101.56 on Friday, the lowest since February 7 and was last down 0.33% to 101.83. For the week, the pair lost 0.30%.

The pair was likely to find support at 101.23 and resistance at 102.40, Friday’s high.

The dollar slid after data showed that U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% from a month earlier in January, compared to expectations for a 0.3% gain.

The data fuelled concerns that inclement winter weather is acting as a drag on growth.

A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for February came in at 81.2, unchanged from the final reading in January. Analysts had expected the index to tick down to 80.6.

The dollar’s losses were held in check by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to scale back its stimulus program.

In her first Congressional testimony since her appointment as Fed Chair, Janet Yellen said Wednesday that the central bank would continue to gradually reduce the pace of its asset purchase program.

She also reiterated that the Fed plans to hold interest rates at zero “well past” the time the jobless rate falls below 6.5%.

In the week ahead, Japan is to release what will be closely watched data on fourth quarter economic growth. A rate review by the Bank of Japan and U.S. data on consumer inflation will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 17

Japan is to release preliminary data on fourth quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 18

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the bank’s decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State.

Wednesday, February 19

The U.S. is to publish reports on building permits, housing starts and producer price inflation.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.

Thursday, February 20

Japan is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on consumer price inflation. The nation is also to release data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, February 21

The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes.

The U.S. is to round up the week with private sector data on existing homes sales.

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