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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: February 3 - 7

Published 02/02/2014, 07:45 AM
Canadian dollar falls to fresh four-and-a-half year lows against U.S. dollar
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose to fresh four-and-half year highs against the Canadian dollar on Friday as the selloff in emerging markets prompted investors to stage a broad retreat from riskier assets.

USD/CAD hit highs of 1.1224, the strongest level since July 2009, before retracting some of those gains to settle at 1.1125, 0.27% lower for the day. For the week, the pair gained 0.10%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.1075 and resistance at 1.1224.

The Canadian dollar came under pressure as the selloff in emerging markets prompted a broad based flight to safety on Friday, with investors fleeing equities, bonds and currencies perceived as risky.

Emerging markets have been hard hit by a combination of concerns over the impact of cuts to the Federal Reserve’s stimulus program and fears over a possible slowdown in China. The Turkish lira and the South African rand tumbled after surprise rate hikes did little to shore up the currencies.

On Wednesday the Fed said it would scale back its monthly asset purchase program by another $10 billion to $65 billion, citing improvements in the labor market.

The Canadian dollar found support after data released on Friday showed that the Canadian economy expanded 0.2% in November, in line with expectations but slowing slightly from growth of 0.3% in October.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer spending rose 0.4% in December, above expectations for an increase of 0.2%.

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index ticked down to 81.2 in January from 82.5 in December, but was better than the preliminary reading of 80.4 and forecasts for a reading of 81.0.

The reports came one day after data showed that the U.S. economy grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter, in line with expectations.

The data fuelled hopes that the recovery in the world’s largest economy could withstand cuts to the Fed’s stimulus program and turmoil in emerging markets.

In the week ahead, investors will be keenly anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for January after December’s report showed that the economy added far fewer jobs than expected. Canadian data on trade and employment will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 3

Canada is to release data on raw materials price inflation.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to produce data on manufacturing activity, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, February 4

The U.S. is to produce data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Wednesday, February 5

Canada is to produce data on building permits.

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Thursday, February 6

Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance, and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Canada is to publish its Ivey PMI.

Friday, February 7

Canada is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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