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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 3 - 7

Published 03/02/2014, 09:25 AM
NZD/USD ends the week with a gain of 1.22%
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand rose to a six-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, after data showed that U.S. fourth quarter growth was revised lower, adding to worries that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of reductions to its stimulus program.

NZD/USD rose to 0.8426 on Friday, the pair’s highest since January 14, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8384 by close of trade, up 0.18% for the day and 1.22% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8290, the low from February 27 and resistance at 0.8426, the high from February 28.

The Commerce Department said Friday that U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product was revised down to an annual rate of 2.4%, from a preliminary estimate of 3.2%. Analysts had expected a downward revision to 2.5%.

Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged recent weakness in U.S. data, saying it indicates softness in the economy.

In testimony to the Senate banking committee in Washington, Ms. Yellen said it was hard to say how much the recent soft data was due to weather and added that the bank would be attentive to signals on whether the recovery is progressing in line with expectations.

The recent patch of soft U.S. economic data forced investors to recalibrate their assumptions about the future course of the Fed's monetary policy.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, data released Friday showed that the ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand rose to a nearly 20-year high of 70.8 in February, from a reading of 64.1 the previous month.

On Thursday, official data showed that New Zealand's trade surplus narrowed less-than-expected to NZ$306 million in January, from NZ$493 million the previous month. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to narrow to NZ$230 million last month.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending February 25.

Net longs totaled 10,982 contracts as of last week, up 18.9% from net longs of 8,906 contracts in the previous week.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for an indication of the strength of the recovery in the labor market and the future course of monetary policy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, March 3

The U.S. is to release data on personal spending, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, March 5

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Thursday, March 6

The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on factory orders.

Friday, March 7

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

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