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Forex - EURUSD weekly outlook: December 8 - 12

Published 12/07/2014, 11:37 AM
Euro drops to 2-year trough against stronger dollar after U.S. jobs report
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Investing.com - The euro dropped to two-year lows against the dollar on Friday after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November showed that the U.S economy added jobs at the fastest rate in nearly three years, highlighting the diverging recovery in the U.S. and the euro zone.

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 321,000 jobs in November, far more than the 225,000 forecast by economists and the largest monthly increase in almost three years.

September’s figure was revised up to 243,000 from a previously reported 214,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a six-year low of 5.8%.

The report also showed that average hourly earnings rose by a larger than forecast 0.4% and were 2.1% higher on a year-over-year basis.

EUR/USD fell to two-year lows of 1.2272 and settled at 1.2281, off 0.78% for the day. For the week, the pair was down 1.24%.

The unusually strong jobs report prompted markets to bring forward expectations for the first hike in U.S. interest rates to mid-2015 from September 2015 ahead of the data.

The euro had moved broadly higher on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated that it would not embark on quantitative easing for now, saying the bank would reassess its stimulus program in the first quarter of 2015.

He said the bank could potentially change the size, scale and composition of its existing stimulus programs and added that governing council remained unanimous that it would take further measures if needed.

The ECB also substantially revised down its forecasts for growth and inflation and warned that the latest forecasts do not take into account the recent steep drop in oil prices.

The bank now expects the euro zone economy to grow by just 0.8% this year, 1.0% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. It cut its inflation forecast for this year to just 0.5% from 0.6% and to 0.7% in 2015 from 1.1%.

The euro rose to six-year highs against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY at 149.23 in late trade.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hit a peak of 89.50, the strongest level since March 2009 and ended the day up 0.82% to 89.39.

In the week ahead investors will be awaiting Thursday data on U.S. retail sales and jobless claims and Friday’s report on consumer sentiment for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery.

The euro zone economic calendar is light, with no major economic reports scheduled for release except for Friday’s report on industrial production.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 8

Germany is to publish data on industrial production while research group Sentix is to publish a report on euro zone investor confidence. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup of finance ministers are to meet in Brussels.

Tuesday, December 9

Germany is to publish data on the trade balance.

Wednesday, December 10

France is to publish data industrial production.

Thursday, December 11

The U.S. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, as well as the weekly report on jobless claims.

Friday, December 12

The euro zone is to publish a report on industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on producer prices and a preliminary report on consumer sentiment.

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