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Economic Calendar - Top 5 Things to Watch This Week

Published 12/08/2019, 04:52 AM
Updated 12/08/2019, 04:53 AM
© Reuters.

© Reuters.

Investing.com - The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are set to hold their final monetary policy meetings of the year this week, with investors staying focused on trade ahead of the looming Dec. 15 deadline for fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Market watchers will also be keenly anticipating the results of the U.K. general election, which will decide the fate of Brexit. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

  1. Fed decision

The Fed is expected to hold steady at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday after cutting rates three times this year to shield the U.S. economy from a global slowdown. Friday's far stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that policymakers will remain on hold as they monitor the economy.

After the last rate cut, in October, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said both the economy and policy were in a "good place" and indicated that policymakers saw little need to cut rates further.

"I think they are feeling really good right now that they’ve decided to put this thing on pause,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

Investors will get the latest consumer price inflation figures ahead of the Fed meeting, which are expected to show inflation running at 2%, while retail sales numbers on Friday are forecast to show growth of 0.4%.

  1. ECB decision

Christine Lagarde will hold her first meeting and news conference as ECB president on Thursday. Markets are not expecting any changes to monetary policy after the ECB announced fresh stimulus in September and following recent signs that the euro zone economy is bottoming out.

Yet Lagarde's every word will be studied for her thoughts on the monetary policy outlook, the economy and an upcoming strategy review. And after eight years of the straight-talking Mario Draghi, expect the new ECB chief's communication style to also fall under scrutiny.

  1. Trade wrangling

Beijing and Washington are trying to reach agreement on a 'phase one' trade deal that would cool a 17-month trade war that has roiled financial markets and weighed on global economic growth, but they continue to wrangle over key details.

There is just a week to go until the Dec. 15 deadline for the U.S. to impose tariffs on the remaining $156 billion in Chinese imports and financial markets have been whipsawed by shifts in rhetoric.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday trade talks with China are "moving right along," striking an upbeat tone even as Chinese officials reiterated that existing tariffs must come off as part of an interim deal. Earlier in the week, though, Trump rattled global markets when he said a deal might have to wait until after the 2020 presidential election.

Data on Sunday showed that China's exports declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, but growth in imports may be a sign that Beijing's stimulus measures are helping to stoke demand.

  1. U.K. election

More than three years after the U.K. narrowly voted to leave the European Union, the Dec. 12 general election will effectively offer them another vote on how they want Brexit to proceed and if they still think it should go ahead.

Opinion polls showing the Conservative Party with a big lead have fueled a rally in the British pound amid the view that Conservatives will quickly implement Brexit and end the uncertainty that's weighed on the economy since 2016.

But some risks remain. First, the gap between the Conservatives and Labor doesn’t need to narrow much to deliver another hung Parliament. Second, if a Conservative win is already priced in, traders may be tempted to take profits, pushing sterling lower.

After the election, the focus will shift to the 11-month window for Britain to sign trade deals with the EU, a prospect which is likely to keep investors on edge.

  1. Market volatility

Stocks pulled back from record highs to start December, undermined by comments from Trump suggesting a trade deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 election. But the market rebounded at the end of the week on Friday's strong U.S. jobs and a change in tone from Trump.

Wall Street could see more volatility ahead of the Dec. 15 tariff deadline. At the start of the week, investors said equity prices were factoring in that those tariffs would be delayed if not canceled, but subsequent tough talk from Trump officials has shaken those expectations somewhat.

"Until we get some finality on this, the day-to-day is going to move on headlines that suggest progress or lack thereof,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at SunTrust Advisory Services in Atlanta.

--Reuters contributed to this report

Latest comments

German recession .............
hopefully GBP pairs will hit potentialy DEMAND and supply zones and EURUSD is going to hit monthly DEMAND
I am goig to wait for the EURO to hit another bottom then looked to trade it. I will look for a pound trade after election results.
If i may ask, why would you day that?
Gold will go 1770
May be but it seems gold has kind of lost its safe haven appeal,atleast for now
I am paying attention to a list of gold miner stocks and gold. It is highly probable they will take off a lot more eventually and I am looking at getting in early on a few of my list of 18. Powell fed choices is contining to pave the way to a worthless currency. It is sad to watch our country go down hill while everything is made and seems to look so rosy good. I expect financial collapse with in a few years more or less. How about Friday finanials and others driven up with the billions put into financials? I put some shorts on them. The fed puts and institutional bonuses are on track this year. They will play games around reacting to China trade news but want to hold the market up doing short squeezes as necessary at least until bonuses are paid.
Gold may continue to slide in the short term (next few months), however it will be substantially higher by this time next year - if you hadn't noticed, interest rates around the world and bond rates continue to head into negative territory and monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world to keep the economy going is only going to weaken all currencies against gold - which is THE benchmark currency for all others - FED creating  billions a night to feed into REPO market, with no end in sight is not a good sign also - neither is the total unserviceable global debt - all this does not bode well and so gold will continue to strengthen as more central banks around the world continue to buy more of the stuff as many countries start to seek alternatives to the USD being the global reserve currency.
he wasn't that rich when came in , now his Entourage and family members are getting so rich manipulating the markets. indexes, oil, gold, fx you name it. he's got the power baby!!
And the American people and Republicans seem to think it's OK for a sitting president to not (as has been the case in the past) reveal past tax returns and declare all business dealings to reveal any conflicts of interest - it's simply hilarious - It's like voting for Al Capone to be president - Trump supporters and Republicans literally don't give a hoot about fraud whatsoever- which should be very concerning for anyone who isn't a billionaire - as Jamie Daimon and team are literally racketeering and helping a small handful of billionaires and investment banks to own almost everything in the US and further afield - it's the biggest wealth grab in history (from money created out of thin air by the FED) - and the American people are just letting it happen, right under their very noses.
I can tell you rite now. 1.tarrifs will not be removed for phase 1. And 2. New tarrifs will be added on the 15 th imo. Why. Because president trump is smart. He got the market all the way up to 3150. Great economy also, but he has massive chips to use and play with. If we sell off 5-7%. Big deal at all!!! Than boom trade deal phase 1 next year. Its genius
Ride the wave
spot on. 5-7% correction is healthy also.
Trump hasn't got the market up - the FED creating trillions of new fresh dollars and giving it every night to the investment banks has got the stock markets up - are you not aware of all this new funny money being created every night and fed into the REPO markets? Have you not been paying attention?
why are markets moving on whether what Trump says or doesn't say? trade war yes, trade war no going on and on and on.
That's basically because Trump is in charge of the most powerful seat in the world: America's Presidency. It's about America, not Trump himself.
Because ALGOS
It is all manipulation and news is used to whip the market a bit very quickly taking money while others without the sophistacated fast connections and computer algos lose. They fundamentals and news itself is really not important to the manipulators, but how the rotate monies and.what underlyings and methods used to move the market is the concentartion. The market manipulators are also behind many fake news stories fed to the media for liquidiy and other reasons. All retail traders can do is try to be on the right side of money flow and get out early of the underlyings driven up paraboliccaly etc. Be careful out there.
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