Gold / Silver / Copper futures - Weekly outlook: August 5 - 9

Published 08/04/2013, 05:56 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures bounced off a two-week low to end Friday’s session little changed, after weaker-than-forecast U.S. jobs data dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to taper its stimulus program in the coming months.

Moves in the gold price this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would end its quantitative easing program sooner-than-expected.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery eased down 0.02% on Friday to settle the week at USD1,310.95 a troy ounce.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,282.65 a troy ounce, Friday’s low and the weakest level since July 19 and resistance at USD1,330.55, Thursday’s high.

The Department of Labor said Friday the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in July, less than the 184,000 increase forecast by economists. June's figure was revised down to 188,000 from a previously reported gain of 195,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.4% from 7.6% in June, due in part to more people leaving the labor force.

The data came amid growing uncertainty over the future of the U.S. central bank’s stimulus program, after the Fed said on Wednesday that it would keep buying USD85 billion a month in mortgage and Treasury securities and gave no hint of plans to taper its bond-buying program.

Despite Friday’s flat performance, gold prices lost 1.65% on the week, the first weekly decline in four weeks, following the release of upbeat U.S. economic data released earlier in the week.

Investors have closely been looking out for U.S. data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases.

The U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000 last week, the lowest level since January 2008.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of purchasing managers rose to 55.4 in July, the highest level since April 2011 and up from a reading of 50.9 in June.

The robust data came after the Commerce Department said on Wednesday that gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.7% in the three months to June, beating expectations for growth of 1%.

That followed a report from payroll processing firm ADP, which said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 200,000 in July, above expectations for an increase of 180,000.

Any improvement in the U.S. economy was likely to reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.

The precious metal is on track to post a loss of 21% on the year amid concerns the Fed will start to unwind its stimulus program by the year's end.

An exit from the stimulus would deal a heavy blow to gold, which has thrived on demand from investors who buy gold to hedge against the inflationary risks of loose monetary policies.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish data on service sector activity as well as a report on the trade balance to further gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for September delivery rallied 1.2% on Friday to settle the week at USD19.85 a troy ounce. Despite Friday’s gains, silver future prices lost 0.6% on the week.

Meanwhile, copper for September delivery eased up 0.1% on Friday to close the week at USD3.168 a pound. On the week, copper prices advanced 2%.

Copper traders will be looking ahead to data on China’s trade balance as well as a report on inflation and industrial production, amid ongoing concerns over the Asian nation’s economic outlook.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

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