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Crude oil futures - Weekly outlook: July 1 - 5

Published 06/30/2013, 07:30 AM
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Investing.com - New York-traded crude oil futures ended Friday’s session lower for the first time in five days, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar prompted investors to lock in gains after prices hit a one-week high earlier in the session.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose as much as 0.5% on Friday to hit 83.59, the strongest level since May 31.

The dollar was in demand amid indications the Federal Reserve will begin to taper asset purchases in the coming months.

Dollar-denominated oil futures contracts tend to fall when the dollar gains, as this makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in August fell 0.6% Friday to settle the week at USD96.46 a barrel by close of trade.

Despite Friday’s decline, Nymex oil futures rose 2.65% on the week.

For the quarter, however, oil declined nearly 1%, as a combination of concerns over an end to the Fed’s assets purchase program and fears over a deepening slowdown in China weighed.

Oil prices hit a session high of USD97.82 a barrel on Friday, the strongest level since June 20, as a series of upbeat U.S. data releases during the week boosted optimism over the U.S. economic recovery.

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consuming country, responsible for almost 22% of global oil demand.

Oil traders now looked ahead to this week’s highly-anticipated U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for indications of how the recovery in the U.S. labor market is progressing.

Any improvement in the U.S. economy was likely to reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve will begin to taper its bond purchase program in the coming months.

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.

Market players also awaited the release of Chinese manufacturing data on Monday to further gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for August delivery fell 0.8% on Friday to settle the week at USD102.01 a barrel.

Earlier in the session, Brent prices rose to a daily high of USD103.42 a barrel, the strongest level since June 20.

The London-traded Brent contract added 1% over the week, while the spread between the Brent and the crude contracts stood at USD5.55 a barrel, the narrowest level since January 2011.

The gap between the contracts has been on the decline in recent weeks, amid an improving production outlook in the North Sea and indications of declining stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex oil futures.

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