We recommended selling GBP/RUB (49.80) for a target of 47.00 and with a stop at 51.00 on 10 October. Today we recommend to book a 0.22% profit as GBP/RUB has decoupled from relative rates. Spot return has been -0.88% while carry has been +1.09%.
The rationale for the short GBP/RUB position was two highly correlated currencies, equally exposed to EUR and USD, but with a different link to risk and macroeconomic performance.
GBP/RUB dipped below 48.00 not long after we recommended to go short, but lost momentum in November. In December, GBP/RUB has rallied on USD demand and the Eurozone crisis and we prefer to book a small profit rather than losing it all in thin Christmas trading.