There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which we've had going since mid-late last year. Below is a simple view of it, with last week’s ‘Week 2 down’ making perfect sense (symmetrically speaking) with ‘Weeks 1 and 2 up’.
Subscribers had a heads-up (from both a sentiment and technical view) that it was time for traders to take profits and holders to prepare for corrective activity in and around the Ukraine hysterics that threw over the final upside (right side of the neckline).
There can be a final drop this week but ultimately (going strictly by technicals, the fundamentals are another matter to be managed along side) if symmetry holds it would be a positive week for the miners.
Please don’t read the H&S above as the final bottoming pattern prior to the real rally. It gets more complex than that and in fact we expanded a road map, here, that would see new recovery highs off this drop, but then a final dispiriting drop before the good stuff comes about. There are also timeframes in play.
But the above is a simplified version that indicates the potential for a near term rise in the miners. The entire point of the big IH&S has been that “grind is good” as we have been paraphrasing from that evil guy from Wall Street. The 2012 ‘W’ went too hard to the upside with too much momentum that failed into a miserable bear market leg. This thing going on now is a grinder of nerves and it is likely to extend out for months.
That should ultimately prove to be a good thing for the HUI Gold Bugs index if indeed the technicals are able to marry up with fundamentals coming back in line.