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Euro Slips On Draghi’s Dovish Tone

Published 03/09/2018, 07:14 AM
Updated 03/05/2019, 07:15 AM

The euro has edged lower in the Thursday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2295, down 0.14% on the day. On the release front, German Industrial Production declined 0.1%, missing the estimate of 0.6%. This marked the fourth decline in the past five months. In the US, the focus is on employment reports. Wage growth is expected to tick lower to 0.2%, while Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to improve to 20 thousand.

The ECB sent a mixed message on Thursday, triggering strong movement from the euro. As expected, the ECB dropped its easing bias, which was the option to increase monthly purchases if the economy softens. This sent the euro higher, but only briefly, as ECB President Mario Draghi was decidedly dovish at his press conference. Draghi said that eurozone inflation could remain subdued, so the Bank’s monetary policy would remain ‘reactive’. The comments were not well received by investors, as the euro slipped close to 1 percent on Thursday.

The EU is seeing red after US President Trump made good on his threat, and signed an order imposing 25% tariffs on steel imports. EU policymakers have threatened to retaliate with tariffs on US goods, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was particularly blunt, saying “we can also do stupid”. Fears of an all-out global trade war are weighing on the US dollar and the stock markets, and the resignation of Gary Cohn, a senior economist in the White House who opposed the tariffs, will only dampen investor risk appetite. The ball is now in the EU court, and if the Europeans retaliate and Trump responds with further tariffs, we could see some sharp movement from EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (March 9)

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Friday, March 9, 2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD for March 9 at 7:10 EDT

Open: 1.2312 High: 1.2321 Low: 1.2290 Close: 1.2298

EUR/USD Technicals

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2092 1.2200 1.2286 1.2357 1.2460 1.2581

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has ticked lower in European trade

  • 1.2286 is a weak support level. It could be tested during the Friday session
  • 1.2357 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2286, 1.2200 and 1.2092
  • Above: 1.2357, 1.2460, 1.2581 and 1.2599
  • Current range: 1.2286 to 1.2357

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (60%), indicative of EUR/USD continuing to move to lower ground.

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